In my last Blog I regaled you with anecdotes about the snowstorms plaguing the Northeast, so this is going to sound like a broken record but we had two more last week. One of them dumped another 69 cm of snow from a fast moving storm that was out of here a few hours before I returned from San Francisco, where I enjoyed record-breaking temperatures in the high 20 cm range all last week. What with record cold temperatures below -18C in Boston and 150 cm of snow on the ground. you’re probably wondering why I came home from that glorious Bay area weather. Me too. It would have been hard to explain to my fellow Photonics West show goers why I stayed after the event was over.
Photonics West was a roaring success, with a record crowd of about 20,000 clogging the aisles in the North and South Halls and the many conference rooms where the SPIE technical sessions were held at the Moscone Center. We knew something was up when the aisles in the South Hall, where we had our booth, filled up just after the opening on Tuesday and stayed that way through Thursday noon.
As I wended my way through the halls to visit other exhibitors, I was impressed by the density of the visitors in the halls and in supplier exhibits. At a Wednesday afternoon LASE conference on Fiber Lasers, my presentation on the fiber laser markets drew a standing-room-only crowd of more than 250. I shouldn’t brag about this as most fiber laser sessions drew full attendance, but when I finished almost half of the audience left the room.
The overall attitude in the exhibit halls and conference rooms and at the annual PennWell-organized Lasers & Photonics Marketplace Seminar was upbeat. Veteran attendees like me recognize that buzz that seems to permeate a show when business is good. It’s an undercurrent of excitement on the part of visitors echoed by the exhibit booth personnel. And one can pick it up in the hotel lobbies and bars where the noise level ramps up after the show and in the restaurants populated by show goers and exhibitors where the bills can be obscenely large. Midway through the week we had our impression of business health confirmed with the reports from two public companies, Coherent with sales up 49% year on year and II-VI, which reported a 76% increase y/y.
There is no doubt about it; business is good in the laser markets and getting better. The manufacturing sector in the U.S. is having a great recovery from the recession, so much so that companies have begun to set aside overtime and hiring is commencing — not a full blown industry wide reaction, but large enough to staunch the unemployment number growth and produce some real downward movement. The Associated Press reports that at Number 1, the U.S. out-produces Number 2 China by more than 40% and does it with less workers; by making complex and expensive goods.
At my Lasers & Photonics Marketplace presentation last week, I was very optimistic about the long term prospects for market growth, so much so that at the lunch break I was jokingly being called Pollyanna by fellow attendees. But you can’t deny the numbers; six months ago, the same numbers were neutral and now they are very positive. So go with the flow and enjoy a renaissance in U.S. manufacturing and the growth of the laser market accordingly.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Friday, January 21, 2011
Changing attitudes
When last I left you, we were riding out another nor’eastah (as they say down Maine), which ended up leaving 23 inches on the ground, followed by another 4, then 8 and as this is being written, another 8 inches. We’ve already passed the annual average snowfall with another 6 to 8 weeks to go before the weather pattern changes to warmer temperatures.
As you read this, I will be winging my way to milder climes in San Francisco for the annual Photonics West, the SPIE LASE Conference, and PennWell’s Laser and Photonics Marketplace Seminar.
In reverse order, at the Marketplace Seminar, I will be bringing positive news to a roomful of marketing executives, who already know that the tide has turned and business is very good. I’ll be showing them market numbers that suggest the industrial sector will return to pre-recession revenue levels a year ahead of what had been forecast. Suppliers are reporting record sales revenues and profits, and bookings at many are at an all-time high.
I was visiting with a system integrator who said his bookings through 2011 and into 2012 are a record and that his main problem is finding vendors to supply the company’s production demands. It seems we all joked about this situation when we in the depths of the recession, saying, "It’s a problem we won’t complain about” then.
My Seminar presentation is full of optimism, and I will back it up with my view of the industries being served by industrial lasers and their buying plans for the coming year. Even the solar cell business, which looks to be in a cyclical downswing, as some countries cut or drop subsidies, is positioned to work off the inventory as new markets open quickly. This is great for the laser business as this is a key industry for laser processing.
At the LASE conference, I will show the status of the fiber laser industry and how its growth potential will make it a dominant player in the indusial laser marketplace as early as next year. Fiber lasers, along with other solid-state lasers, dragged the laser market up to significant growth last year, but the big growth numbers were with fiber lasers, which will now continue to eat into solid-state sales, especially in microprocessing.
And, finally, I will be meeting with a cross-section of laser and component suppliers, all of which focus on the industrial market. Photonics West set records for exhibitors this year, and its character is changing a bit as visitors are feeling comfortable with their products. I fully expect to hear nothing but good news from those I interview as the timing of the recovery couldn’t have been better.
It will be a busy week, but the show and conferences will be upbeat and a pleasure to attend.
As you read this, I will be winging my way to milder climes in San Francisco for the annual Photonics West, the SPIE LASE Conference, and PennWell’s Laser and Photonics Marketplace Seminar.
In reverse order, at the Marketplace Seminar, I will be bringing positive news to a roomful of marketing executives, who already know that the tide has turned and business is very good. I’ll be showing them market numbers that suggest the industrial sector will return to pre-recession revenue levels a year ahead of what had been forecast. Suppliers are reporting record sales revenues and profits, and bookings at many are at an all-time high.
I was visiting with a system integrator who said his bookings through 2011 and into 2012 are a record and that his main problem is finding vendors to supply the company’s production demands. It seems we all joked about this situation when we in the depths of the recession, saying, "It’s a problem we won’t complain about” then.
My Seminar presentation is full of optimism, and I will back it up with my view of the industries being served by industrial lasers and their buying plans for the coming year. Even the solar cell business, which looks to be in a cyclical downswing, as some countries cut or drop subsidies, is positioned to work off the inventory as new markets open quickly. This is great for the laser business as this is a key industry for laser processing.
At the LASE conference, I will show the status of the fiber laser industry and how its growth potential will make it a dominant player in the indusial laser marketplace as early as next year. Fiber lasers, along with other solid-state lasers, dragged the laser market up to significant growth last year, but the big growth numbers were with fiber lasers, which will now continue to eat into solid-state sales, especially in microprocessing.
And, finally, I will be meeting with a cross-section of laser and component suppliers, all of which focus on the industrial market. Photonics West set records for exhibitors this year, and its character is changing a bit as visitors are feeling comfortable with their products. I fully expect to hear nothing but good news from those I interview as the timing of the recovery couldn’t have been better.
It will be a busy week, but the show and conferences will be upbeat and a pleasure to attend.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Oh, the weather outside is frightful
Outside my window it is snowing hard. This is the third Nor’easter in 5 days, the first two being inconsequential, just 1 and 4 inches, respectively. But this one is, as we say here in New England, a "wicked storm", with 20+ inches already down and more to come.
Friends and colleagues across the pond in Western Europe know what I am writing about as they have had one of the worst winters for snow in decades, with some of them living in countries where snow depth records were set. I’ll be seeing many of them in a few days at Photonics West in San Francisco, and I am sure we’ll greet each other with outstretched hands showing the snow depth.
My good friend and SALA colleague, Bob Murray, tells me he and his wife, Pauline, fought their way up Interstate 84 from Danbury, Connecticut to East Hartford in 5 hours Saturday night. It’s only a 60-minute drive normally, but 8 inches of unplowed snow closed the highway, forcing a backroad detour. I can’t believe he left the warmer Hilton Head, S.C., for an old fashion Nor’easter this week.
Bob was calling to bring me up to date on SALA activities. (The 6th Annual Symposium for Advanced Laser Applications will be held in Hartford on April 13 to 14.) Registrations, sponsors, and tabletop reservations are coming in and the speaker’s panel is filling up. This year the Organizing Committee has taken a new tack: All speakers will be end users nominated by a panel of product suppliers. The plan is to meet the goal of being the first “end users” symposium, and attendees are being invited from all over North America. To accommodate those traveling long distances, SALA has been moved to the Sheraton Hartford and a block of rooms at an attractive rate will make attending economical.
The program has been arranged so that attendees can pick and choose sessions and combine this with time to meet and discuss projects with the exhibitors in an adjacent room. For example, there is a session on laser drilling, another on laser welding, and one on surface modification, cutting, additive manufacturing, coating removal and process control.
SALA will be an event where users can get the latest information on their processing activity, and those new to the technology can learn more about the processes and the economics of each as shared by the speakers who themselves are users.
ILS is deeply involved with SALA. I serve on the Organizing and Planning Committees and ILS is the exclusive media partner. So we are looking forward to this opportunity to meet with a diverse group of manufacturing professionals who share one interest: laser materials processing.
Friends and colleagues across the pond in Western Europe know what I am writing about as they have had one of the worst winters for snow in decades, with some of them living in countries where snow depth records were set. I’ll be seeing many of them in a few days at Photonics West in San Francisco, and I am sure we’ll greet each other with outstretched hands showing the snow depth.
My good friend and SALA colleague, Bob Murray, tells me he and his wife, Pauline, fought their way up Interstate 84 from Danbury, Connecticut to East Hartford in 5 hours Saturday night. It’s only a 60-minute drive normally, but 8 inches of unplowed snow closed the highway, forcing a backroad detour. I can’t believe he left the warmer Hilton Head, S.C., for an old fashion Nor’easter this week.
Bob was calling to bring me up to date on SALA activities. (The 6th Annual Symposium for Advanced Laser Applications will be held in Hartford on April 13 to 14.) Registrations, sponsors, and tabletop reservations are coming in and the speaker’s panel is filling up. This year the Organizing Committee has taken a new tack: All speakers will be end users nominated by a panel of product suppliers. The plan is to meet the goal of being the first “end users” symposium, and attendees are being invited from all over North America. To accommodate those traveling long distances, SALA has been moved to the Sheraton Hartford and a block of rooms at an attractive rate will make attending economical.
The program has been arranged so that attendees can pick and choose sessions and combine this with time to meet and discuss projects with the exhibitors in an adjacent room. For example, there is a session on laser drilling, another on laser welding, and one on surface modification, cutting, additive manufacturing, coating removal and process control.
SALA will be an event where users can get the latest information on their processing activity, and those new to the technology can learn more about the processes and the economics of each as shared by the speakers who themselves are users.
ILS is deeply involved with SALA. I serve on the Organizing and Planning Committees and ILS is the exclusive media partner. So we are looking forward to this opportunity to meet with a diverse group of manufacturing professionals who share one interest: laser materials processing.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Wiping the slate clean
It’s the first week of a new year/decade, and here in New England it started bright and sunny, with the temperature above normal. Outside my office, the remainders of an unexpected blizzard a week ago are just about gone as we enjoyed almost balmy temperatures last week, melting the 12 inches of snow on the ground.
I like to wipe the slate clean and forget about last year, just as I turn the calendar page and start the year with optimism, well founded this year as business prospects are looking up and good news abounds in the manufacturing sector. The Monday Wall Street Journal was full of good news, but the item I liked the best was headlined, "Big Firms Poised To Spend Again," which opened with “Big U.S. companies have cleaned up their balance sheets and, flush with cash (my emphasis), appear open to using it in 2011 on factories (again my emphasis), stores and even hiring (me again)." It’s a long article and I encourage readers to savor it.
What could be a better way to start the year than to read about companies primed to boost manufacturing in the US? If you weren't already feeling positive about a fresh new year, this will help you change your attitude.
Many of us charged with forecasting the economy, in my case that of the industrial laser community, were cautious in their year-end reports. There was an optimistic undertone, but conservatism engendered by world events and a little residual bruising after the recession led to a cautious modest growth forecast for 2011. My number is 14%, which isn’t far off the 18.10% CAGR of the market since 1970.
My roadmap for sustaining economic growth includes modest growth rates, led by applications in the medical device, display, semiconductor, energy, and aerospace industries. A return to solid double-digit growth in marking/engraving will bolster the solid state and CO2 numbers.
Application growth in laser assist manufacturing and the buying capacity of the BRIC markets will keep industrial lasers on an upward growth curve.
So my new year optimism is grounded in the reality that the pieces are all in place for a vibrant new year/decade.
I like to wipe the slate clean and forget about last year, just as I turn the calendar page and start the year with optimism, well founded this year as business prospects are looking up and good news abounds in the manufacturing sector. The Monday Wall Street Journal was full of good news, but the item I liked the best was headlined, "Big Firms Poised To Spend Again," which opened with “Big U.S. companies have cleaned up their balance sheets and, flush with cash (my emphasis), appear open to using it in 2011 on factories (again my emphasis), stores and even hiring (me again)." It’s a long article and I encourage readers to savor it.
What could be a better way to start the year than to read about companies primed to boost manufacturing in the US? If you weren't already feeling positive about a fresh new year, this will help you change your attitude.
Many of us charged with forecasting the economy, in my case that of the industrial laser community, were cautious in their year-end reports. There was an optimistic undertone, but conservatism engendered by world events and a little residual bruising after the recession led to a cautious modest growth forecast for 2011. My number is 14%, which isn’t far off the 18.10% CAGR of the market since 1970.
My roadmap for sustaining economic growth includes modest growth rates, led by applications in the medical device, display, semiconductor, energy, and aerospace industries. A return to solid double-digit growth in marking/engraving will bolster the solid state and CO2 numbers.
Application growth in laser assist manufacturing and the buying capacity of the BRIC markets will keep industrial lasers on an upward growth curve.
So my new year optimism is grounded in the reality that the pieces are all in place for a vibrant new year/decade.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Finishing the year on an upswing
A little bird arrived at the feeder this morning, trilling that it was officially the first day of winter, a fact I already knew as the first snowflakes of a passing ocean storm covered the ground. It’s three days until Christmas, and a resolute band of sentimentalists, each humming the old Bing Crosby chestnut “White Christmas,” have their collective fingers crossed that the dusting will last until Christmas morning.
Another clue that the holiday is coming is the spate of e-mail holiday greetings I have been receiving for a few days now. I still receive old-fashioned mailed cards, which I especially appreciate as these are among the nicest greeting cards received.
The other clue is the buildup of e-mail messages advising that this or that company will stay closed through the coming week to “allow their employees to celebrate the holiday season,” an admirable gesture. Actually, I fall in this category, taking vacation between Christmas and New Year. So don’t look for a blog from me next week.
I always despise the end-of-year editorial musings that are beginning to appear, which is funny because I am an historian of sorts, but not an instant historian, I guess. Thus, I refrain from viewing and/or reading all the retrospectives that will permeate the Web, television news, and newspapers.
Since I will be on vacation next week, I’ll give you my annual review now. 2010 was a better year than 2009: the recession ended, officially, and the laser industry, for the most part, turned the corner and finished up the year with good financials and backlogs that presage a better 2011.
The laser industry breathed a big sigh of relief that the corner had been turned and then patted itself on the back that some had set revenue and backlog records and that most see a strong first half in 2011. On that note, what can I say? Finishing the year on the upswing is a nice feeling, and the immediate future certainly looks bright for the industrial laser community.
So a very happy holiday to all, a special happy New Year, and hopes for a more profitable year.
Oh, by the way, the sun just came out and melted all the snow, so we, here in this part of New England, will probably have a green Christmas. Sorry, Bing.
Another clue that the holiday is coming is the spate of e-mail holiday greetings I have been receiving for a few days now. I still receive old-fashioned mailed cards, which I especially appreciate as these are among the nicest greeting cards received.
The other clue is the buildup of e-mail messages advising that this or that company will stay closed through the coming week to “allow their employees to celebrate the holiday season,” an admirable gesture. Actually, I fall in this category, taking vacation between Christmas and New Year. So don’t look for a blog from me next week.
I always despise the end-of-year editorial musings that are beginning to appear, which is funny because I am an historian of sorts, but not an instant historian, I guess. Thus, I refrain from viewing and/or reading all the retrospectives that will permeate the Web, television news, and newspapers.
Since I will be on vacation next week, I’ll give you my annual review now. 2010 was a better year than 2009: the recession ended, officially, and the laser industry, for the most part, turned the corner and finished up the year with good financials and backlogs that presage a better 2011.
The laser industry breathed a big sigh of relief that the corner had been turned and then patted itself on the back that some had set revenue and backlog records and that most see a strong first half in 2011. On that note, what can I say? Finishing the year on the upswing is a nice feeling, and the immediate future certainly looks bright for the industrial laser community.
So a very happy holiday to all, a special happy New Year, and hopes for a more profitable year.
Oh, by the way, the sun just came out and melted all the snow, so we, here in this part of New England, will probably have a green Christmas. Sorry, Bing.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Tis the season
This is a particularly distracting time of the year. Even if we took the Christmas Holiday out of the month, many of us would still be feeling the end of the year pressures which have more importance for those whose fiscal year ends on December 31st. Many companies have shifted their fiscal year closing to coincide with the federal and state governments if they do business with those entities. But for many others, the end of the year is also the end of their fiscal year.
For them, trying to cope with all the pressures of the holiday season compounded by the need to close the company books on a positive note can prove to be a difficult one-two punch.
When I had a manufacturing company, we were always increasing employee’s overtime to get that one last shipment out the door so that the sales book looked as good as possible. I can recall resorting to all kinds of accounting magic to get shipments on the books even if it was to a local warehouse where the equipment was turned around on January 1st to be “modified” prior to shipment to the customer. The brief stay in the warehouse qualified it as shipped in the current year.
I thought about all these pressures the other night as I attended a performance of Charles Dickens’s A Christmas Carol. It must have been the umpteenth time I have sat through this classic, but for the first time I had some sympathy for the “villain” of the piece, Ebenezer Scrooge. Why did this rendering make me empathize with the poor put-upon business man - hounded by charity requests, beset by employee problems and so overwhelmed that he planned to work on Christmas day?
I think it was the intent of the show’s director to have Scrooge become less of an ogre and more of an addled businessman trying to cope with the end of the year and the holiday at the same time. Mind you I am not condoning his practices, but when those charity workers arrived and asked for a donation and Scrooge recited one of the classic speeches in Dickens’s work, a diatribe on the injustices faced by the poor business owner, I almost found myself nodding my head. Good directing and good acting made a sympathizer out of me, at least for that scene in the play.
Discussing this later with my guests, I decided, erroneously, that Scrooge was a candidate for the Tea Party, at least the smaller government part. At the close of the play when Scrooge relents and turns into a fuzzy darling, I almost called him a traitor to his cause. I’m not certain that, in those Victorian times, he would have had some public way to express his outrage, as we do with the Internet, but the poor man, I told my guests, may just have been looking for a forum to speak his piece.
One of my guests, my sister, opined that I had had too much wine before we went to the play and that my thinking was muddled. I chalked her reasoning up to holiday fever, where she along with others has “visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads.”
The next issue of ILS is ready for printing a week before Christmas. The publisher closes the third quarter a week later, but the end of the fiscal year is still three months away. So all I have to do is get the editorial finalized and I, too, can enjoy the December refrain, Happy Holidays to all.
For them, trying to cope with all the pressures of the holiday season compounded by the need to close the company books on a positive note can prove to be a difficult one-two punch.
When I had a manufacturing company, we were always increasing employee’s overtime to get that one last shipment out the door so that the sales book looked as good as possible. I can recall resorting to all kinds of accounting magic to get shipments on the books even if it was to a local warehouse where the equipment was turned around on January 1st to be “modified” prior to shipment to the customer. The brief stay in the warehouse qualified it as shipped in the current year.
I thought about all these pressures the other night as I attended a performance of Charles Dickens’s A Christmas Carol. It must have been the umpteenth time I have sat through this classic, but for the first time I had some sympathy for the “villain” of the piece, Ebenezer Scrooge. Why did this rendering make me empathize with the poor put-upon business man - hounded by charity requests, beset by employee problems and so overwhelmed that he planned to work on Christmas day?
I think it was the intent of the show’s director to have Scrooge become less of an ogre and more of an addled businessman trying to cope with the end of the year and the holiday at the same time. Mind you I am not condoning his practices, but when those charity workers arrived and asked for a donation and Scrooge recited one of the classic speeches in Dickens’s work, a diatribe on the injustices faced by the poor business owner, I almost found myself nodding my head. Good directing and good acting made a sympathizer out of me, at least for that scene in the play.
Discussing this later with my guests, I decided, erroneously, that Scrooge was a candidate for the Tea Party, at least the smaller government part. At the close of the play when Scrooge relents and turns into a fuzzy darling, I almost called him a traitor to his cause. I’m not certain that, in those Victorian times, he would have had some public way to express his outrage, as we do with the Internet, but the poor man, I told my guests, may just have been looking for a forum to speak his piece.
One of my guests, my sister, opined that I had had too much wine before we went to the play and that my thinking was muddled. I chalked her reasoning up to holiday fever, where she along with others has “visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads.”
The next issue of ILS is ready for printing a week before Christmas. The publisher closes the third quarter a week later, but the end of the fiscal year is still three months away. So all I have to do is get the editorial finalized and I, too, can enjoy the December refrain, Happy Holidays to all.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Homestretch perspectives
It’s hard to believe but we are in the homestretch of 2010, with the end of the year just a few short weeks away. The speed with which the year passed may be attributable to the increase in business for most aspects of industrial laser material processing. It started in San Francisco last January where the buzz at Photonics West was the turnaround in the markets. At LASYS in Stuttgart, halfway through the year, industry recovery was being openly talked about, with fingers crossed, as reality set in. At EuroBlech in Hannover and Fabtech in Atlanta this fall, the end of the recession was obvious as exhibitors were once again finding strong quoting action from show attendees.
There is no question that the expansive activity in the semiconductor, microprocessing, energy and medical device markets spurred record sales at solid-state and fiber laser manufacturers. Revenue growth was almost enough to offset the laggard fabricated metal product markets for high power CO2 lasers. The introduction of new fiber laser powered sheet metal cutters helped to generate lost revenue in that market as this cutting technology was finding new customers.
At EuroBlech, a half dozen new fiber laser cutter suppliers showed products, bringing the total of product suppliers to more than 25. Does this market need this many equipment suppliers? Fair question, except one must remember that there are more than 75 companies offering CO2 powered metal cutting systems globally. And most of the fiber laser cutter suppliers sell CO2 systems also.
Looked at from a different perspective, one could speculate that for the most part fiber laser cutter equipment is basically another product in the sales catalog of CO2 sales people, so to them a sale is just a sale. Concerning the laser makers, less than a handful manufacture only one laser type, with most now offering a choice to system integrators.
Considering this, one might ask why there is competition between CO2 and fiber lasers for sheet metal cutting. There seems to be sufficient business to satisfy most everyone. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out in 2011.
Speaking of 2011, business prospects look good for a continuation of the growth pattern set in 2010. The great unknown is the economic situation in Europe and the fall out from this impacting North America and Asia. This situation has the makings of a market buster, but at this time we do not have a reason to adjust our very positive forecast that will appear in the January /February issue of ILS.
There is no question that the expansive activity in the semiconductor, microprocessing, energy and medical device markets spurred record sales at solid-state and fiber laser manufacturers. Revenue growth was almost enough to offset the laggard fabricated metal product markets for high power CO2 lasers. The introduction of new fiber laser powered sheet metal cutters helped to generate lost revenue in that market as this cutting technology was finding new customers.
At EuroBlech, a half dozen new fiber laser cutter suppliers showed products, bringing the total of product suppliers to more than 25. Does this market need this many equipment suppliers? Fair question, except one must remember that there are more than 75 companies offering CO2 powered metal cutting systems globally. And most of the fiber laser cutter suppliers sell CO2 systems also.
Looked at from a different perspective, one could speculate that for the most part fiber laser cutter equipment is basically another product in the sales catalog of CO2 sales people, so to them a sale is just a sale. Concerning the laser makers, less than a handful manufacture only one laser type, with most now offering a choice to system integrators.
Considering this, one might ask why there is competition between CO2 and fiber lasers for sheet metal cutting. There seems to be sufficient business to satisfy most everyone. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out in 2011.
Speaking of 2011, business prospects look good for a continuation of the growth pattern set in 2010. The great unknown is the economic situation in Europe and the fall out from this impacting North America and Asia. This situation has the makings of a market buster, but at this time we do not have a reason to adjust our very positive forecast that will appear in the January /February issue of ILS.
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