Well, the Super Bowl is set, and fans in New England and the Southeast are bemoaning a dropped pass here and a missed tackle there, as the Brothers Bowl promises an extra reason to watch San Francisco take on Baltimore in New Orleans. I’ll confess to being a 49ers fan since I was a lad, recalling grainy film on black and white television of YA Title, then a 49er, valiantly leading his team through the mud of Kezar Stadium. There was something exotic about the 49ers, playing on the West Coast that attracted an East Coast fan more attuned to Otto Graham and the Cleveland Browns, another early favorite. A few years later, I had the occasion to visit Kezar, on another rainy day, and I was so deflated by the dowdy, gray stadium that looked so like the old B & W images.
Now there’s a new era, and the 49ers are about to leave windy old Candlestick Park for new digs abuilding in Santa Clara, just down the 101. They are being led by one of a new generation of quarterbacks, one of at least three "option" quarterbacks who are revolutionizing the old NFL passing game. They are a feisty group: one looking like a lean tattooed hippy, another like a short fireplug, and the third resembling a dread-locked Alabama running back. The game they play is exciting and refreshing. In a league that is known for copycatting, it won't be long before this style is the norm.
All this brings to mind a more quiet revolution in laser materials processing technology and tangentially in lean manufacturing around the world. Most metal manufacturing operations are subtractive with chunks of metal being machined down to final shape. Large amounts of scrap metal result, creating a new term "scrap management." Years ago I worked on a process that used a laser beam to cut the ribbons of metal resulting from turning operations into short pieces that could be blown into barrels for later recycling. These densely packed barrels freed up unproductive floor space in the machine shop and greatly reduced scrap management. However, it was judged too expensive because of the investment and operating cost of the lasers then used.
At about the same time, I was involved in a government-sponsored program to use the energy - in a focused or shaped laser beam impinging on the surface of hard-to-machine metal parts - just ahead of the cutting tool, which acted to soften the metal, leading to faster machining rates, less tool wear, and smoother finishes.
The lasers we were using were also being used in a cladding process where layers of melted powder metals were laid down to create a new, more wear-resistant surface. We did play around with building up layers, but not to create a specific shape. Later, this technology was expanded at United Technologies as the laser beam melted and deposited metal to create an aircraft turbine component.
Others experimented with the buildup process and several limited-success activities evolved. Holding back more widespread acceptance of this process was the usual reluctance on the part of industry to accept change.
Early in the history of industrial lasers. the Brits had had the idea of cost-effective manufacturing of quantities-of one, but the concept never took root: too advanced for a slow-to-change industry. The evolution of "lean manufacturing" and the ideal of building quantities of one at a competitive price began to take hold several years ago. Some impetus came from the U.S. government, where the DOD sensed the future need for sources that could cope with the demand for replacement parts from industries that had long since stopped producing.
Sitting in the wings was the rapid prototyping industry that had expanded its capabilities into rapid manufacturing and was experimenting with deposition of metal powders to make useable parts. A conjunction of this technology with the needs of lean manufacturing and the availability of powerful cost-effective fiber laser sources created the process now known as additive manufacturing and its subset, laser additive manufacturing (LAM).
The Laser Institute of America recognized this technology as a process of the future and thus convened the first LAM conference in Houston last year. This year’s event, again held in Houston, will expand its frontiers beyond aerospace into the more mundane needs of small- to medium-sized machine shops. Interested parties, for a start, might consider attending LAM and joining the growing network of LAM enthusiasts.
ILS will feature articles on this subject, commencing with the March/April issue, where industry in the US is challenged to take up this technology. Like many technologies, its time has come, and the future is very bright for LAM.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Monday, January 7, 2013
Happy New Year - I think
There's something about the start of a new
year that I find refreshing. Maybe it's just looking at a calendar with 12-month
listings of mostly good happenings such as: conferences, trade shows, and
overseas trips, with the exception of a couple of not-so-good events, like a
root canal I am scheduled for in February.
I find it somewhat amusing that the end-of-the-year comments on the Internet were, for the most part, negative about the world's manufacturing economic forecasts and then after January 1 these same commentators turned more positive by finding rays of sunshine in the same bad news they promulgated in December. Just a few examples from Industry Week:
Then - German Industrial Output Tumbles Again and Japanese Manufacturers' Confidence Dives
Now - Advanced Manufacturing Comes to Life in 2012 and Make Your Move: Peril or Profit – What Should You Expect from the Economy in 2013.
Three commentaries, one up - two down.
The early industrial laser news has been mostly positive, with several companies spending hoarded cash to buy some market share, for example Coherent beefing-up its ultra-fast pulse laser business with the purchase of Lumera and Leco (Lincoln Electric) buying Tennessee Rand and adding this systems builder to go along with last year's buy of special laser system maker, Wayne Trail.
I like this laser news as it presages more good news as these and other companies restructure to meet the expected surge later this year: a subject I'll address at this year's Laser & Photonics Market seminar in San Francisco next month.
I find it somewhat amusing that the end-of-the-year comments on the Internet were, for the most part, negative about the world's manufacturing economic forecasts and then after January 1 these same commentators turned more positive by finding rays of sunshine in the same bad news they promulgated in December. Just a few examples from Industry Week:
Then - German Industrial Output Tumbles Again and Japanese Manufacturers' Confidence Dives
Now - Advanced Manufacturing Comes to Life in 2012 and Make Your Move: Peril or Profit – What Should You Expect from the Economy in 2013.
Three commentaries, one up - two down.
The early industrial laser news has been mostly positive, with several companies spending hoarded cash to buy some market share, for example Coherent beefing-up its ultra-fast pulse laser business with the purchase of Lumera and Leco (Lincoln Electric) buying Tennessee Rand and adding this systems builder to go along with last year's buy of special laser system maker, Wayne Trail.
I like this laser news as it presages more good news as these and other companies restructure to meet the expected surge later this year: a subject I'll address at this year's Laser & Photonics Market seminar in San Francisco next month.
Friday, December 21, 2012
Seasons greetings
It's that time of year when many of us reflect on the past 12 months -- and if we are honest, we give some thought to what we did that didn't quite work out the way we had planned. Out of this may come a resolution to not do such things again in the new year. I come at this from a different, more pragmatic, direction: basically, what happened is history and move on from there.
The reason I bring this up is that I have completed my Annual Industrial Laser Market Review, which will appear in the January/February issue of Industrial Laser Solutions magazine and also be presented at the annual Laser & Photonics Marketplace seminar in San Francisco (February 4th) -- in which I will gracefully acknowledge that I pretty much called the laser economic performance as it worked out.
Nursing a strained arm, a result of too much back-patting, I will bravely attempt to crystal-ball the 2013 markets. Like the most watched prognosticator, the weatherman, I'll take credit for the good forecast and ignore the bad; maybe that's where I developed my pragmatic attitude. (Just kidding, folks -- I don't get, nor want, gold medals for calling it right.)
The industrial laser market was 'so-so' in 2012, with some sectors having a great year and others a not-so-bad year, much of which came in quarterly ups and downs through the year, not too many in sync. However, the third quarter seemed to be the most common for "down" news, a result I posit was due to laser and systems suppliers working off their 2011 backlogs. If companies were supplying the aerospace, transportation, energy, agriculture, personal communications, and medical devices markets, their fortunes were up. Since these sectors represent a major chunk of the total laser market, it was a good thing. My take on the other segments was that they had just an average year and as a consequence 2012 ended up in the mid-single-digit range for growth.
For 2013, I am not convinced that the laser market will repeat the same performance. A message that came across when talking with exhibitors at the last big show of 2012, Fabtech, was to expect a flat year. Projections for 2013 ranged from that to low growth, with the exception coming from some of the 'star' sectors of 2012. I won't give away my analysis results; you'll have to read it in ILS or attend the San Francisco seminar. Suffice it to say, it's not the brightest forecast I have made.
Other than that, please have a happy holiday season -- and let's think positive about 2013.
The reason I bring this up is that I have completed my Annual Industrial Laser Market Review, which will appear in the January/February issue of Industrial Laser Solutions magazine and also be presented at the annual Laser & Photonics Marketplace seminar in San Francisco (February 4th) -- in which I will gracefully acknowledge that I pretty much called the laser economic performance as it worked out.
Nursing a strained arm, a result of too much back-patting, I will bravely attempt to crystal-ball the 2013 markets. Like the most watched prognosticator, the weatherman, I'll take credit for the good forecast and ignore the bad; maybe that's where I developed my pragmatic attitude. (Just kidding, folks -- I don't get, nor want, gold medals for calling it right.)
The industrial laser market was 'so-so' in 2012, with some sectors having a great year and others a not-so-bad year, much of which came in quarterly ups and downs through the year, not too many in sync. However, the third quarter seemed to be the most common for "down" news, a result I posit was due to laser and systems suppliers working off their 2011 backlogs. If companies were supplying the aerospace, transportation, energy, agriculture, personal communications, and medical devices markets, their fortunes were up. Since these sectors represent a major chunk of the total laser market, it was a good thing. My take on the other segments was that they had just an average year and as a consequence 2012 ended up in the mid-single-digit range for growth.
For 2013, I am not convinced that the laser market will repeat the same performance. A message that came across when talking with exhibitors at the last big show of 2012, Fabtech, was to expect a flat year. Projections for 2013 ranged from that to low growth, with the exception coming from some of the 'star' sectors of 2012. I won't give away my analysis results; you'll have to read it in ILS or attend the San Francisco seminar. Suffice it to say, it's not the brightest forecast I have made.
Other than that, please have a happy holiday season -- and let's think positive about 2013.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Fabtech 2012: Hiking through an oasis of lasers in the desert
Walking the 450,000 square feet of the Las Vegas Convention Center dedicated to Fabtech for three days is usually a chore. This year, the hike was made longer by the fact that the booth assignment for Industrial Laser Solutions was as far from the main entrance as one could get, against the far wall of the Center hall. Reaching this "home base" location after forays into the Center and North halls of the show at times felt like being a constant hiker to the summit of Mount Everest. You were glad to get there and rest, but apprehensive about doing it again and again as you tried to visit all the laser exhibits among the 1100 spread throughout the halls.
However, like good soldiers, my partner, associate editor Jim Montgomery, and I logged innumerable miles as we managed to see most of the exhibitors until we ran out of time, and energy, at the end of the third day.
As already reported, the show appeared to be a significant success. We did not hear any negative comments about the show, and for the most part the positive comments were effusive regarding the quantity and quality of the show visitors. Business was good, with many orders closed by exhibitors and with others piling up leads as the first two days saw a continuous stream of visitors in the dozens of aisles. As an aside, we wondered where all these visitors were coming from: after all, there isn't much industry in and around Las Vegas since it's mostly desert. So we surmised that these adamant show-goers -- more than 25,000 of them -- came from a distance and spent time and money to see metal fabricating and welding specifically.
On the morning of the final day, after a very strong Tuesday attendance, I recalled a video that was shot of me exiting the 2008 Fabtech (see below), which had been held in this same facility. My recorded comment was that the show had been a spectacular success, with many orders placed and prospects for the coming quarter projected as very bright. That show, like this year's, was scheduled a few short weeks after a very successful EuroBlech -- just as happened this year.
You will recall that 2008 was a year of indecision, where "cautiously optimistic" became a marketing manager's mantra, whereas this year it is "uncertainty." At EuroBlech and Fabtech that year, positive business news seemed to run counter to all the negative financial news in the media. However, in the first week of December 2008, the bottom fell out of the laser market as order cancellations began to flow in, and projects were summarily delayed.
Fabtech 2012 had an eerie feeling of déjà vu. On my iPhone were reports of a return of recession in Europe, unrest in Israel/Palestine, and the "fiscal cliff" in the US. Strangely reminiscent of the negative news in 2008, just of a different character.
I left the Las Vegas Convention Center with an unsettling feeling. Will 2012 be a repeat of 2008? My head tells me that things are different today, but my gut kept rumbling -- déjà vu. I sincerely hope it was just indigestion from the Brazilian Churrasco I had the night before, and not an indication of some negative news to come.
However, like good soldiers, my partner, associate editor Jim Montgomery, and I logged innumerable miles as we managed to see most of the exhibitors until we ran out of time, and energy, at the end of the third day.
As already reported, the show appeared to be a significant success. We did not hear any negative comments about the show, and for the most part the positive comments were effusive regarding the quantity and quality of the show visitors. Business was good, with many orders closed by exhibitors and with others piling up leads as the first two days saw a continuous stream of visitors in the dozens of aisles. As an aside, we wondered where all these visitors were coming from: after all, there isn't much industry in and around Las Vegas since it's mostly desert. So we surmised that these adamant show-goers -- more than 25,000 of them -- came from a distance and spent time and money to see metal fabricating and welding specifically.
On the morning of the final day, after a very strong Tuesday attendance, I recalled a video that was shot of me exiting the 2008 Fabtech (see below), which had been held in this same facility. My recorded comment was that the show had been a spectacular success, with many orders placed and prospects for the coming quarter projected as very bright. That show, like this year's, was scheduled a few short weeks after a very successful EuroBlech -- just as happened this year.
You will recall that 2008 was a year of indecision, where "cautiously optimistic" became a marketing manager's mantra, whereas this year it is "uncertainty." At EuroBlech and Fabtech that year, positive business news seemed to run counter to all the negative financial news in the media. However, in the first week of December 2008, the bottom fell out of the laser market as order cancellations began to flow in, and projects were summarily delayed.
Fabtech 2012 had an eerie feeling of déjà vu. On my iPhone were reports of a return of recession in Europe, unrest in Israel/Palestine, and the "fiscal cliff" in the US. Strangely reminiscent of the negative news in 2008, just of a different character.
I left the Las Vegas Convention Center with an unsettling feeling. Will 2012 be a repeat of 2008? My head tells me that things are different today, but my gut kept rumbling -- déjà vu. I sincerely hope it was just indigestion from the Brazilian Churrasco I had the night before, and not an indication of some negative news to come.
Friday, November 2, 2012
Industrial laser exhibition shows growth
There has been a growing interest, among the industrial laser equipment suppliers, for a trade show of their own in which to promote their products to potential buyers who attend because of this interest. The Laser Institute of America (LIA), an international society mainly known as the organizer of the world renowned International Congress on Lasers and Electro-Optics (ICALEO), stepped up to the plate last year and they organized the first Lasers for Manufacturing Event (LME).
The October 22nd second convening of this event, again held in Schaumburg, IL, was a larger version of the inaugural with an additional 30% exhibitors and a growth in attendance of 37%. Peter Baker, LIA executive director, told me that the growth of LME was akin to that old adage, "You must crawl before you walk." Consequently the LIA, with two years under its belt, has committed to another three years at the attractive and convenient Schaumburg Convention Center.
Attempting to slide an industrial trade show into an already crowded calendar is not an easy task. Many of these trade shows (IMTS, Fabtech, EuroBlech, MD&M, and even the LIA's own ICALEO) have industrial laser material processing related content, drawing away potential exhibitors and attendees. However LME is a truly different show -- it is a show of industrial laser suppliers showing their products to interested laser buyers. As more than one exhibitor told me this year, "The level of interest among attendees is of high quality because this is an industrial laser show, and the majority of visitors came because they have interest in this technology." Another exhibitor said they had doubled their orders this year over last year. Confirming this good news, 90% of exhibitors surveyed advised they will return next year.
The October 22nd second convening of this event, again held in Schaumburg, IL, was a larger version of the inaugural with an additional 30% exhibitors and a growth in attendance of 37%. Peter Baker, LIA executive director, told me that the growth of LME was akin to that old adage, "You must crawl before you walk." Consequently the LIA, with two years under its belt, has committed to another three years at the attractive and convenient Schaumburg Convention Center.
Attempting to slide an industrial trade show into an already crowded calendar is not an easy task. Many of these trade shows (IMTS, Fabtech, EuroBlech, MD&M, and even the LIA's own ICALEO) have industrial laser material processing related content, drawing away potential exhibitors and attendees. However LME is a truly different show -- it is a show of industrial laser suppliers showing their products to interested laser buyers. As more than one exhibitor told me this year, "The level of interest among attendees is of high quality because this is an industrial laser show, and the majority of visitors came because they have interest in this technology." Another exhibitor said they had doubled their orders this year over last year. Confirming this good news, 90% of exhibitors surveyed advised they will return next year.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
It's too early for weird
This spot has not been updated for a while due in large part to my relative incapacity -- a result of some unplanned surgery that sapped my energy. I suggest readers might find it amusing to read My View, appearing in the November/December issue of ILS, for details. But I am now almost 100% and back at the keyboard. Again, see My View for more thoughts on this.
So how did the world fair while I was away? Let's see: the Eurozone is still a mess, although Greece is back in favor with a new finance minister in charge. However, Portugal and Spain are still stressing out -- no change there. China remains the big thorn in everyone's side, as manufacturing in that country has contracted for the 11th straight month and the economic expansion in August was the worst performance in three years. The government still seems to be focused on domestic opportunities, and there does not seem to be any support for assisting the capex market to produce sales of sophisticated imported equipment for the production of parts for export. The outlook in China, according to MAPI (Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation), is for 2012 manufacturing sales to grow 7.8%, down from previous estimates of 8.6%. For machinery and equipment, sales revenue is anticipated to be down 3% in 2012 and 4% in 2013 from previous estimates.
All of this means that countries exporting equipment into China will have to gut out 2012 and hope the government has another change of policy to open the floodgates for imports in 2013.
Working back down the food chain, this is not pleasant news for European companies dependent on exports to China. In the US, manufacturing grew for the first time in four months according to the ISM (Institute for Supply Management). And this poses a conundrum: are US companies dependent on sales to China or not? It looks like a "not" at this time, as manufacturing is cruising along even though surveys suggest that these companies are anxious about the possibility of a fiscal cliff brought on by domestic tax increases and budget cuts.
Third quarter reports and guidance from our ILS survey companies will start to arrive in our offices in late November, just in time for compilation into our annual economic review of the laser market. As of this writing, I don't have a clue as to what the numbers will look like, but I have the feeling the China situation may finally be rearing its ugly head here, as in other industrialized nations. Whatever happens, it looks like a bumpy ride for the coming weeks.
So how did the world fair while I was away? Let's see: the Eurozone is still a mess, although Greece is back in favor with a new finance minister in charge. However, Portugal and Spain are still stressing out -- no change there. China remains the big thorn in everyone's side, as manufacturing in that country has contracted for the 11th straight month and the economic expansion in August was the worst performance in three years. The government still seems to be focused on domestic opportunities, and there does not seem to be any support for assisting the capex market to produce sales of sophisticated imported equipment for the production of parts for export. The outlook in China, according to MAPI (Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation), is for 2012 manufacturing sales to grow 7.8%, down from previous estimates of 8.6%. For machinery and equipment, sales revenue is anticipated to be down 3% in 2012 and 4% in 2013 from previous estimates.
All of this means that countries exporting equipment into China will have to gut out 2012 and hope the government has another change of policy to open the floodgates for imports in 2013.
Working back down the food chain, this is not pleasant news for European companies dependent on exports to China. In the US, manufacturing grew for the first time in four months according to the ISM (Institute for Supply Management). And this poses a conundrum: are US companies dependent on sales to China or not? It looks like a "not" at this time, as manufacturing is cruising along even though surveys suggest that these companies are anxious about the possibility of a fiscal cliff brought on by domestic tax increases and budget cuts.
Third quarter reports and guidance from our ILS survey companies will start to arrive in our offices in late November, just in time for compilation into our annual economic review of the laser market. As of this writing, I don't have a clue as to what the numbers will look like, but I have the feeling the China situation may finally be rearing its ugly head here, as in other industrialized nations. Whatever happens, it looks like a bumpy ride for the coming weeks.
Monday, September 10, 2012
Eye's East
China, that powerhouse economy, has thrown the world a curve-ball. Some saw this coming, as the financial news from the country had turned neutral and then negative in the past few weeks. But like many Pollyannas, reality in the stock markets never set in and predictions of a government-led turnaround were common in manufacturing industry corporate reports to stockholders. The magic elixir of government stimulation, rapidly applied and instantly effective, was expected to turn this situation around. Weeks went by and this did not occur, at least in the short-run which had been the modus operandi since the recession.
Official figures released over the weekend showed only an 8.7% increase in production, the same rate as the country experienced in the recession three years ago. It wasn't as sharp decline as China's economy had been slipping over the last year or so, refusing to react to government moves to turn it around -- and distinctly sending a message of independence from the non-state-owned manufacturing community. Both imports and exports took a hit with the former down 2.6% and the latter growing only a so-so 2.7%. With domestic demand slipping in China, this prolonged situation is not good news especially in countries and companies for whom exports to China may be their life-blood in a near-recession economy.
Among the industrial laser and systems suppliers, this is troubling news. The end of the third quarter is only three weeks away and the anticipated recovery to stronger shipments to the Far East looks questionable. Some analysts see the government's infrastructure stimulus favoring imports in the coming months but there seems to be little support for an instant boom in the economy. That said, it looks like the industry will settle down to modest growth market in China into the new year.
Official figures released over the weekend showed only an 8.7% increase in production, the same rate as the country experienced in the recession three years ago. It wasn't as sharp decline as China's economy had been slipping over the last year or so, refusing to react to government moves to turn it around -- and distinctly sending a message of independence from the non-state-owned manufacturing community. Both imports and exports took a hit with the former down 2.6% and the latter growing only a so-so 2.7%. With domestic demand slipping in China, this prolonged situation is not good news especially in countries and companies for whom exports to China may be their life-blood in a near-recession economy.
Among the industrial laser and systems suppliers, this is troubling news. The end of the third quarter is only three weeks away and the anticipated recovery to stronger shipments to the Far East looks questionable. Some analysts see the government's infrastructure stimulus favoring imports in the coming months but there seems to be little support for an instant boom in the economy. That said, it looks like the industry will settle down to modest growth market in China into the new year.
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