In this spot was intended to be a report on ICALEO 2011 by the Industrial Laser Solutions Editorial Advisors and me, but Mother Nature played a dirty trick on most of southern New England. She dropped an historic, for October, snowfall (12-18 inches) that coated the fully-leaved trees, causing severe damage to the trees and subsequently to the power lines. This is being written from my car, where I have cruised central Massachusetts looking for WiFi to connect with.
So just a brief note to say power is off, but when it returns, a full report on ICALEO will be posted.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
In Japan, the sun also rises
I arrived in Tokyo two weeks ago to find a country recovering from the most recent of two major coastal typhoons that added to the already lingering after-effects of a serious earthquake and the resulting tsunami that devastated the country's power supply.
My visit was centered on Yokahama, the largest port, which did not experience any direct damage but like all of the Kant? Plains area was still under tight government restrictions on power usage. To a guest at a first-class hotel, the only visible signs of any problems were a raised air conditioning temperature and the lowering of lighting in public spaces. I am sure that behind the scenes of a well-run hotel, the problems were greater, but they managed to keep these from affecting guests.
At the Pan-Pacific Exhibition complex, the same power requirements were also in place and other than a slightly discomforting higher temperature in the halls and conference rooms one would not know that the country was in a recovery mode. The most visable tip-off was the general absence of ties worn by visitors, a distincly non-Japanese dress mode occasioned by the working envirornment temperatures.
I came here to partcipate and speak at LaserTech 2011, one of four co-located exhibits featuring complementary laser technology and products. The organizers said they came close to 12,000 attendees, exceeding their forecasted 10,000. Was this a sign that the Japanese economy was taking an upward turn after years of being depressed? It’s hard to say as this was very much a domestic show with all exhibits signs in Japanese, and for the most part, exhibits were staffed by Japanese-speaking marketing and sales people so surveys of exhibitor satisfaction were hard to obtain. I judged the continuous activity at exhibits adjacent to mine as an indication that business prospects among the attendees were good.
One of my goals on this trip was to learn how Japanese suppliers of industrial laser products survived years of stagnation and the recent disasters. I spoke with managers and officers of both large and small companies and found that their attitude, at least to Westerners, was upbeat. An interesting twist was that the severe goverment restrictions on power usage and the crushing economic climate had caused companies to dramaticaly change their operating procedures. And now that restrictions were easing and the economy was turning up, these same companies intended to keep in place many of the changes forced on them to become, as a result, an even leaner, tighter operating entity. Basically they said they learned they could operate comfortably with reduced energy and other restrictions. As one CEO said to me, "It was a tough learning experience."
My visit was centered on Yokahama, the largest port, which did not experience any direct damage but like all of the Kant? Plains area was still under tight government restrictions on power usage. To a guest at a first-class hotel, the only visible signs of any problems were a raised air conditioning temperature and the lowering of lighting in public spaces. I am sure that behind the scenes of a well-run hotel, the problems were greater, but they managed to keep these from affecting guests.
At the Pan-Pacific Exhibition complex, the same power requirements were also in place and other than a slightly discomforting higher temperature in the halls and conference rooms one would not know that the country was in a recovery mode. The most visable tip-off was the general absence of ties worn by visitors, a distincly non-Japanese dress mode occasioned by the working envirornment temperatures.
I came here to partcipate and speak at LaserTech 2011, one of four co-located exhibits featuring complementary laser technology and products. The organizers said they came close to 12,000 attendees, exceeding their forecasted 10,000. Was this a sign that the Japanese economy was taking an upward turn after years of being depressed? It’s hard to say as this was very much a domestic show with all exhibits signs in Japanese, and for the most part, exhibits were staffed by Japanese-speaking marketing and sales people so surveys of exhibitor satisfaction were hard to obtain. I judged the continuous activity at exhibits adjacent to mine as an indication that business prospects among the attendees were good.
One of my goals on this trip was to learn how Japanese suppliers of industrial laser products survived years of stagnation and the recent disasters. I spoke with managers and officers of both large and small companies and found that their attitude, at least to Westerners, was upbeat. An interesting twist was that the severe goverment restrictions on power usage and the crushing economic climate had caused companies to dramaticaly change their operating procedures. And now that restrictions were easing and the economy was turning up, these same companies intended to keep in place many of the changes forced on them to become, as a result, an even leaner, tighter operating entity. Basically they said they learned they could operate comfortably with reduced energy and other restrictions. As one CEO said to me, "It was a tough learning experience."
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Looking to The Rising Sun for answers
I'm preparing for a trip to Japan next week where I will be presenting my mid-year report on the industrial laser marketplace. Because my PowerPoint slides will be shown in Japanese, they were submitted for translation several weeks ago, and therein lies a conundrum- present what I had prepared or, because the market seems to be leaning more towards a slow-down, extemporize – possibly causing the simultaneous translator a migraine.
For months I have reported the strength of the markets served by industrial lasers and touted their ability to overcome downward adjustments that all the experts were predicting. And I still believe this, even though daily news shows softness developing in some of the market stalwarts that have kept sales and revenues at a high level.
At this point in time, the laser system supplier’s books are, for the most part, full for 2011, with backlogs in place into the early weeks of 2012. By all accounts these orders seem secure and I have yet to hear of concerns about cancellations or shipment delays.
My colleague, Dr. Tom Hausken of Strafegies Unlimited, reports that a round of recent West Coast corporate interviews confirmed the "jobless recovery" scenario, seemed to show some market uncertainties and expected flat sales for 2012. Tom and I share a lot of data and therefore I tend to listen more attentively to what he says, even though we have been known to object to each other's conclusions at times. So I'll file away his notes for consideration as I start my 2011 annual report in November.
One thing I intend to discuss with executives of Japanese companies I will meet with next week is how they survived the recent 10 year economic stagnation in Japan. The idea of a similar situation in the U.S. has been floated by some economists and I intend to see how such an occurrence might impact the dynamic laser market.
Stay tuned for my Japan report in a couple of weeks.
For months I have reported the strength of the markets served by industrial lasers and touted their ability to overcome downward adjustments that all the experts were predicting. And I still believe this, even though daily news shows softness developing in some of the market stalwarts that have kept sales and revenues at a high level.
At this point in time, the laser system supplier’s books are, for the most part, full for 2011, with backlogs in place into the early weeks of 2012. By all accounts these orders seem secure and I have yet to hear of concerns about cancellations or shipment delays.
My colleague, Dr. Tom Hausken of Strafegies Unlimited, reports that a round of recent West Coast corporate interviews confirmed the "jobless recovery" scenario, seemed to show some market uncertainties and expected flat sales for 2012. Tom and I share a lot of data and therefore I tend to listen more attentively to what he says, even though we have been known to object to each other's conclusions at times. So I'll file away his notes for consideration as I start my 2011 annual report in November.
One thing I intend to discuss with executives of Japanese companies I will meet with next week is how they survived the recent 10 year economic stagnation in Japan. The idea of a similar situation in the U.S. has been floated by some economists and I intend to see how such an occurrence might impact the dynamic laser market.
Stay tuned for my Japan report in a couple of weeks.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Oops
After 27 years of editing Industrial Laser Solutions, it was inevitable that I would make a significant error, since one of magnitude had never been made previously. I should qualify that — once we published an issue with the cover image upside down. This was never noticed by readers, perhaps because the subject was five-axis laser cutting and the photo looked like it could be a multi-axis machine.
The error I refer to was in a News item posted on the ILS home page, referencing exhibitor comments about the upcoming trade show LaserTech India 2011. Inadvertently, by my mistake, their comments were attributed to another trade show, Laser India 2011, which will be held a few weeks later. Complicating this was the fact that ILS is a media partner of this trade show; ironically, the original News posting was done because ILS supports all events that promote the industrial laser technology, regardless of affiliations.
The error might have been noticed by one of our staff and corrected if it had not been for two mitigating factors. First, our offices were powerless, as was most of our geographic region from the effects of the powerful hurricane Irene. Secondly, the timing of a potential error notice was poor because our offices were closed for the long holiday weekend, and our staff was widely scattered, enjoying the last holiday before schools reopened.
Thus the error was called to my attention by e-mails from the principals of the two trade shows, an unfortunate situation because affected parties seek immediate relief. To make matters worse, the battery in my laptop gave out while I was driving around in my car to find some free Wi-Fi, so I was unable to respond to the e-mails until power was restored at the time our offices were closed.
With some assistance from an obliging company IT person on his holiday, a short corrective News notice was posted followed by a corrected rewording of the first notice that was intended to set the record straight. The offended parties were generally understanding about the unintended error and mostly mollified by my suggestions for ongoing corrective actions.
The object lesson for this embarrassing imbroglio: check and recheck your facts, just like the saying, "measure twice and cut once". Also, have a plan for quick response after catastrophes strike.
The error I refer to was in a News item posted on the ILS home page, referencing exhibitor comments about the upcoming trade show LaserTech India 2011. Inadvertently, by my mistake, their comments were attributed to another trade show, Laser India 2011, which will be held a few weeks later. Complicating this was the fact that ILS is a media partner of this trade show; ironically, the original News posting was done because ILS supports all events that promote the industrial laser technology, regardless of affiliations.
The error might have been noticed by one of our staff and corrected if it had not been for two mitigating factors. First, our offices were powerless, as was most of our geographic region from the effects of the powerful hurricane Irene. Secondly, the timing of a potential error notice was poor because our offices were closed for the long holiday weekend, and our staff was widely scattered, enjoying the last holiday before schools reopened.
Thus the error was called to my attention by e-mails from the principals of the two trade shows, an unfortunate situation because affected parties seek immediate relief. To make matters worse, the battery in my laptop gave out while I was driving around in my car to find some free Wi-Fi, so I was unable to respond to the e-mails until power was restored at the time our offices were closed.
With some assistance from an obliging company IT person on his holiday, a short corrective News notice was posted followed by a corrected rewording of the first notice that was intended to set the record straight. The offended parties were generally understanding about the unintended error and mostly mollified by my suggestions for ongoing corrective actions.
The object lesson for this embarrassing imbroglio: check and recheck your facts, just like the saying, "measure twice and cut once". Also, have a plan for quick response after catastrophes strike.
Monday, August 8, 2011
The glass is still half full
As this is being written, turmoil in the global markets caused by a downgrading of the US credit rating by Standard & Poor’s has Wall Street and other financial centers in a panic. Our befuddled leadership in Washington is busy pointing fingers of guilt at each other or chortling as the political fallout may likely fulfill their wish for a one-term presidency. Meanwhile, the elected representatives have taken a five-week hiatus while Rome burns, except for the Republican presidential hopefuls who are being fed so much fodder by a summer-bored media that they are falling all over each other competing for one last vote in Iowa.
Lost in all this is the impetus of the President's bullish stance on revitalizing the health of the manufacturing industry. It was just another mouthful of words that rings hollow as it is now obvious he doesn’t have the political wherewithal to move anything through a divided Congress that senses blood.
This, the 100th in this series of blogs, was originally planned to be a celebration of the good news emanating from the major public corporations that have just reported their latest quarter financials and the powerful news from industry leader TRUMPF whose 2010/11 preliminary figures were nothing short of spectacular: sales up 51% from the second-highest ever sales and bookings for 2010/11 at € 2.22 billion.
However, it is now a blog about the facts. Yes, we have heard the rumblings of concern within the global manufacturing economy, causing us to look more and more like a male version of Little Mary Sunshine; make note of my sensitivity on this subject.
And here are the facts: the manufacturing sectors that use industrial lasers are not those that are directly affected by a rise in the interest rates, such as the housing industry. Those that are driving the good news reported in the guidance issued by the public laser product suppliers are the aerospace industry, which is locked into long term contracts for new aircraft (and engine) deliveries for the next five years; the alternate energy industry where solar -rich countries are finally pushing photovoltaic installations instead of the nuclear options that were already on the drawing boards; the medical devices suppliers that are experiencing a global surge in preventative medical treatment; the microelectronics industry which cannot seem to fully satisfy the volume of laser drilled micro-substrates; the alternate energy vehicle suppliers whose order books are full of battery-operated vehicles even as the President gave the industry a “kiss-of-death” with his proclamation for doubled gas mileage regulations (try selling this one Mr. Obama); and a booming product marking sector that is sold on laser-generated 2D barcodes both for regulatory and inventory purposes
These are real, growing markets that will sustain the laser business for the rest of this year and well into the next. Yes, I hear the groundswell of support for a second recession that could wipe out these markets, and I am enough of a pragmatist to believe that this scenario is stronger today than six months ago when I poo-pooed the idea. But, as far as the industrial laser business goes, I see the glass of water as half full. And if I am wrong, it really won’t matter, as we will all go down in flames this time around because no amount of water will quench the global fire.
Lost in all this is the impetus of the President's bullish stance on revitalizing the health of the manufacturing industry. It was just another mouthful of words that rings hollow as it is now obvious he doesn’t have the political wherewithal to move anything through a divided Congress that senses blood.
This, the 100th in this series of blogs, was originally planned to be a celebration of the good news emanating from the major public corporations that have just reported their latest quarter financials and the powerful news from industry leader TRUMPF whose 2010/11 preliminary figures were nothing short of spectacular: sales up 51% from the second-highest ever sales and bookings for 2010/11 at € 2.22 billion.
However, it is now a blog about the facts. Yes, we have heard the rumblings of concern within the global manufacturing economy, causing us to look more and more like a male version of Little Mary Sunshine; make note of my sensitivity on this subject.
And here are the facts: the manufacturing sectors that use industrial lasers are not those that are directly affected by a rise in the interest rates, such as the housing industry. Those that are driving the good news reported in the guidance issued by the public laser product suppliers are the aerospace industry, which is locked into long term contracts for new aircraft (and engine) deliveries for the next five years; the alternate energy industry where solar -rich countries are finally pushing photovoltaic installations instead of the nuclear options that were already on the drawing boards; the medical devices suppliers that are experiencing a global surge in preventative medical treatment; the microelectronics industry which cannot seem to fully satisfy the volume of laser drilled micro-substrates; the alternate energy vehicle suppliers whose order books are full of battery-operated vehicles even as the President gave the industry a “kiss-of-death” with his proclamation for doubled gas mileage regulations (try selling this one Mr. Obama); and a booming product marking sector that is sold on laser-generated 2D barcodes both for regulatory and inventory purposes
These are real, growing markets that will sustain the laser business for the rest of this year and well into the next. Yes, I hear the groundswell of support for a second recession that could wipe out these markets, and I am enough of a pragmatist to believe that this scenario is stronger today than six months ago when I poo-pooed the idea. But, as far as the industrial laser business goes, I see the glass of water as half full. And if I am wrong, it really won’t matter, as we will all go down in flames this time around because no amount of water will quench the global fire.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Relax its summer
Two "hot" news items have crossed my desk in the last few days, both by coincidence related to news from Germany: one on a positive economic note and the other not.
TRUMPF, the leader in the industrial laser products market, reported a 51% increase in 2010/11 fiscal year sales, with 2.025 billion Euros compared to last year's sales of 1.340 billion Euros. This is the second highest revenue year, only topped by 2007/08 with 2.144 billion Euros. However, bookings were 2.22 billion Euros, topping the 2.15 billion Euros booked in 2007/08. And the frosting on the cake is that profits last year are expected to hit triple digits in the millions, and the company will need to add another 500 jobs worldwide.
The less than auspicious news is that the mighty German manufacturing engine is sputtering, according to two closely watched indices, the Ifo and ZEW monthly reports. Both reports were negative, with analysts titch-titching that “Expectations are clearly weakening.” The blame rests on, of all things, three problems: the budget impasse in the US, a slowdown in the expanding Chinese market, and a drop in German consumer spending. Where have we heard this before?
We are not supposed to get overheated in these “dog days” of summer, the weather forecasters remind us, but most of the US has been posting record high temperatures the past few weeks, thereby driving up our personal heat indices. So I think I’ll head for the lake for a few days to cool off and to savor the great news from TRUMPF and ignore the not-so-good news from the manufacturing front. Relaxation is what summer is made for.
TRUMPF, the leader in the industrial laser products market, reported a 51% increase in 2010/11 fiscal year sales, with 2.025 billion Euros compared to last year's sales of 1.340 billion Euros. This is the second highest revenue year, only topped by 2007/08 with 2.144 billion Euros. However, bookings were 2.22 billion Euros, topping the 2.15 billion Euros booked in 2007/08. And the frosting on the cake is that profits last year are expected to hit triple digits in the millions, and the company will need to add another 500 jobs worldwide.
The less than auspicious news is that the mighty German manufacturing engine is sputtering, according to two closely watched indices, the Ifo and ZEW monthly reports. Both reports were negative, with analysts titch-titching that “Expectations are clearly weakening.” The blame rests on, of all things, three problems: the budget impasse in the US, a slowdown in the expanding Chinese market, and a drop in German consumer spending. Where have we heard this before?
We are not supposed to get overheated in these “dog days” of summer, the weather forecasters remind us, but most of the US has been posting record high temperatures the past few weeks, thereby driving up our personal heat indices. So I think I’ll head for the lake for a few days to cool off and to savor the great news from TRUMPF and ignore the not-so-good news from the manufacturing front. Relaxation is what summer is made for.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Made redundant by the Web - again
It was a Friday afternoon and the sales team, winding down a three day corporate sales meeting, restively awaited the final speaker, me. Heavy early weekend traffic slowed down my arrival and had me in a bit of a funk as I breathlessly arrived 30 minutes late.
I should have taken a short break to catch my breath, but recognizing that I had three dozen sales people ready to head home for the weekend, I proceeded to deliver what was supposed to be a positive state-of-the-market rouser guaranteed to have these reps outperform their monthly quotas.
Normally, I open such presentations on a light note with a laugh-generating anecdote. I don’t know what possessed me, except the lack of energy after a hard week of travel, but my opening remark was: “I’m glad I had this opportunity to meet with you today, because next year most of you will be gone, as the era of the machine tool salesman is over.”
Nervous laughter broke out as I continued, “Yes, most of you will be redundant, made so by the power of the Internet.” Now, sensing that I was not joking, I was bombarded by objections and then questions about my premise, which in essence was, buyers will get their machine information off the Web, analyze it and make a buying decision without your influence. The general objection was that the Web could not sell a machine tool. My counter was, people already buy their new cars off the Web, and many car dealers have an internal Web salesman just for that purpose.
These sales guys still thought I was joking, and I managed to leave on rather tenuous grounds, with a parting shot from the sales manger: “That will be the day,” he growled.
A few short years later, that day has arrived.
In his new book, Selling Change, 101+ Secrets for Growing Sales by Leading Change http://http://sellingchange.com/author/brett-clay/, Brett Clay says, “The trends of globalization and Internet empowered buyers are devaluing the roles traditionally filled by salespeople - to provide product information and take orders.”
In case you haven’t had the occasion to shop for a new machine tool on the Internet, trust me all you need to know is out there in Cyberspace. Retrieving this information is getting even easier as potential buyers realize the power of the Web and learn how to make it work for them. The marketplace has changed and, like others made inconsequential by the power of the Web, the salesman's denial was short lived.
I had occasion to see the sales manager of that company I spoke to, at a recent trade show, where he walked the floor as an independent sales rep. I was surprised when he went out of his way to greet me, thinking that he probably never forgave me for what I said. Instead, the subject never came up even though he told me he had recently been made redundant. I was glad we were still friends and I knew that his remaining productive years would not be bitter ones.
I should have taken a short break to catch my breath, but recognizing that I had three dozen sales people ready to head home for the weekend, I proceeded to deliver what was supposed to be a positive state-of-the-market rouser guaranteed to have these reps outperform their monthly quotas.
Normally, I open such presentations on a light note with a laugh-generating anecdote. I don’t know what possessed me, except the lack of energy after a hard week of travel, but my opening remark was: “I’m glad I had this opportunity to meet with you today, because next year most of you will be gone, as the era of the machine tool salesman is over.”
Nervous laughter broke out as I continued, “Yes, most of you will be redundant, made so by the power of the Internet.” Now, sensing that I was not joking, I was bombarded by objections and then questions about my premise, which in essence was, buyers will get their machine information off the Web, analyze it and make a buying decision without your influence. The general objection was that the Web could not sell a machine tool. My counter was, people already buy their new cars off the Web, and many car dealers have an internal Web salesman just for that purpose.
These sales guys still thought I was joking, and I managed to leave on rather tenuous grounds, with a parting shot from the sales manger: “That will be the day,” he growled.
A few short years later, that day has arrived.
In his new book, Selling Change, 101+ Secrets for Growing Sales by Leading Change http://http://sellingchange.com/author/brett-clay/, Brett Clay says, “The trends of globalization and Internet empowered buyers are devaluing the roles traditionally filled by salespeople - to provide product information and take orders.”
In case you haven’t had the occasion to shop for a new machine tool on the Internet, trust me all you need to know is out there in Cyberspace. Retrieving this information is getting even easier as potential buyers realize the power of the Web and learn how to make it work for them. The marketplace has changed and, like others made inconsequential by the power of the Web, the salesman's denial was short lived.
I had occasion to see the sales manager of that company I spoke to, at a recent trade show, where he walked the floor as an independent sales rep. I was surprised when he went out of his way to greet me, thinking that he probably never forgave me for what I said. Instead, the subject never came up even though he told me he had recently been made redundant. I was glad we were still friends and I knew that his remaining productive years would not be bitter ones.
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