Let’s grow LME

Could a "mini-Munich" be held in the US?

For several years, following the expansion of industrial laser system exhibits at the Munich laser show, World of Photonics, exhibitors and visitors from the US began to ask if a "mini Munich" could be held in their own country. Several European organizations expressed interest in the idea, and some aligned with US organizations to test the waters for such a venture. ILS was a participant in some of these activities.

The focus of these activities has been the question: could a free-standing laser trade show, perhaps supported by a technical conference, draw sufficient numbers of exhibitors and attendees generate the revenues needed to cover the expense of producing such a venture? Munich's World of Photonics is a massive effort with technical organizations coordinating with Messe Munich to make this biennial event a destination. Housed within the Messe Munich halls are exhibits that cover all aspects of laser technology, not just industrial material processing. At Munich, two Production halls provide space for many dozens of exhibitors showing their products and these halls are a beehive of activity for the four days of the show. At Munich, over 20,000 attendees fill the hall aisles. Walk-ins at most German trade shows are common so bustling attendance is the norm. Could that be duplicated in the US?

Here in the US, two major international laser trade shows, Photonics West and CLEO, draw hundreds of exhibitors in support of large technical conferences. Neither of these events are strictly an industrial laser show. Fabtech and IMTS are trade shows for industrial products and each has an industrial laser content, but not at the level of a Munich.

Stepping into this breech two years ago was the Laser Institute of America, which put together an event called, rather curiously, Lasers for Manufacturing Event (LME). Organized almost overnight in 2011 and situated in a convention center in Schaumburg, IL, LME got off to a modest start with technical sessions supported by an exhibition of several dozen industrial laser suppliers. Encouraged by this, the LIA moved forward to produce the second LME last year, along the same lines as the first, with the intent to size-up the exhibitor level to attract a larger walk-in attendance. This effort produced additional exhibitors, and the show attendance experienced a modest increase.

Thus, the Laser Institute of America (LIA)  has cranked-up its effort to make this year’s LME (September 11 to 12) a major destination for those in North America interested in industrial laser material processing. Here’s the rub, however. Unless new exhibitors support the show to make it a "mini Munich" it will not attract the attendance numbers needed to keep the event growing. Simply, you have to invest to make this show a "must see".

To all those who asked for an industrial-laser-only event, here it is. Support it. To those who are reticent to exhibit at the same venue as their competitors, I say, wake up, that's what makes Munich so attractive, and you like that. Trade shows like Fabtech and IMTS have pavilions where competitors exhibit shoulder to shoulder, amiably and profitably.

Here's a clarion call to all industrial laser systems suppliers in North America: if you want a "mini Munich," join with your peers and make LME that event.

Looked at manufacturing lately?

Lately, the media has been writing more than usual about U.S. manufacturing. It seems the word is out that manufacturing is:  A – on Washington’s hot list, B – poised to lead the country out of the doldrums, C – reaping the benefits of lean practices, D – benefiting from productivity leadership, E – a good place to work, and F – all of the above.

All of a sudden, manufacturing engineers are in the spotlight, and universities are touting curriculum changes that are attracting new students to what was once a “dirt-under-the-fingernails” type of occupation. Recognition of the need for these engineers has occurred in government, academia, and industry organizations; they are a little late, one could argue, but at least there is awareness at all levels, a necessary and positive action that gets media attention.

Many decades ago, a group from the laser industry was invited by the U.S. Department of Commerce to present state-of-the -technology and to suggest ways in which that department could assist in growing what was then a nascent industry. This was long before the Fraunhofer model of government/academic/industry cooperative projects was even conceived. This laser industry group did not appear with hands out for federal funding; they simply thought that government recognition of this industry at the highest level might be the catalyst for faster growth. No funds were sought, only the suggestion that a statement by the president that this technology was important to the U.S. and that all government departments should cooperate to the extent allowed to smooth the path for this industry to grow.

The statement didn’t happen. It seems that the party in power was more influenced by corporate loathing for government involvement (with the attendant bureaucratic regimens), than to look to Washington for assistance. Several decades later, the current president did pretty much what the naïve laser group had proposed. Time will tell if they had the right idea.

In the meantime, manufacturing is on a roll in the U.S., and industrial lasers are riding with it.

 

Industrial laser market meets forecast

As this is being written, I am waiting out the end of a particularly nasty, late winter northeaster that has dumped a foot of heavy, wet snow on the region. It's sort of Mother Nature's last slap at us before the start of Spring next week. I won't bore you with details, but the Winter of 2012/2013 will be close to the top in snowfall records.

Speaking of records, the last of the 4QCY12 reports are in, and reviewing the results for industrial laser industry leaders, such as Coherent, IPG Photonics and Rofin, I do not see any compelling reason to make a significant change in the ILS 2012 Annual Report already published and delivered at the recent Marketplace for Lasers & Photonics seminar in San Francisco. I'll possibly tweak the detail numbers, such as those for lasers used for specific applications, but the changes will be minimal and will not upset the trend lines.

The early assessments for the global manufacturing economy are rolling in and have not changed from those I used to make the ILS 2013 forecast. The mix of good/bad news is about what analysts expected, and I anticipate that my numbers might inch up a bit, but remain in the mid-single digit area. I'll have a better idea come my mid-year Market Report, which again this year will be in the form of an ILS Webcast scheduled for June.

Photonics West features ultra-fast and fiber lasers

I’ve finally recovered from a rousing Photonics West (with a record attendance of more than 20,700 visitors) that, as usual for this early-in-the-year tradeshow, was optimistic and upbeat. Although their ranks are growing, industrial laser exhibitors at PW are still in the minority. For me, that’s great because I can cover this segment without leaving the show feeling like I had missed something important. Having said that, I will confess that I spent relatively little time in the North Hall compared to the South Hall where most of the industrial laser exhibitors were. At PW, there are two main halls containing over 1235 exhibitors, which were jam-packed with exhibits, many on table-tops only, giving the impression of a near-East bazaar. As a consequence, I may have missed some international companies that had products related to industrial lasers. Fortuitously, I had colleagues at the show and they will tip me off to any hidden gems I may have missed.

Centered in the South Hall was a powerhouse display of advanced industrial laser technology at the exhibits of IPG, Coherent, Trumpf, Jenoptik, and Newport. Setting aside the lure of fiber lasers, it was gratifying to see large and seemingly enthusiastic exhibit visitors checking out new ultra-fast pulse lasers that are being introduced into the market for industrial laser material processing. Many of these have appeared on the ILS Webpage and in the monthly Product Watch e-Newsletters.

Referring back to my opening paragraph, I use PW exhibit visits to the industrial laser product suppliers as a touchstone for what business prospects may look like in the first half of 2013. My overall impression reinforces what I presented in my Annual Market Review: very modest growth in the first half, followed by the start of a pickup in the 3Q and an active 4Q that will take suppliers into 2014 with a healthy backlog.

At the show, I asked company management if they were comfortable with a slower growth year. Their answer was that, having survived the Great Recession by leaning the companies down and investing in new products - which led the industry out of the slump and enabled them to roar back to pre-recession revenue and profit levels one year earlier than predicted - they intend to hold staffing and major investment levels. Company management essentially believed they were capable of meeting market demand in 2013 before they staff up for 2014. There are exceptions, such as IPG Photonics riding a boom in fiber laser sales, but for the most part, it’s a wait-and-see attitude for 2013.

Laser Additive Manufacturing takes center stage

Well, the Super Bowl is set, and fans in New England and the Southeast are bemoaning a dropped pass here and a missed tackle there, as the Brothers Bowl promises an extra reason to watch San Francisco take on Baltimore in New Orleans. I’ll confess to being a 49ers fan since I was a lad, recalling grainy film on black and white television of YA Title, then a 49er, valiantly leading his team through the mud of Kezar Stadium. There was something exotic about the 49ers, playing on the West Coast that attracted an East Coast fan more attuned to Otto Graham and the Cleveland Browns, another early favorite. A few years later, I had the occasion to visit Kezar, on another rainy day, and I was so deflated by the dowdy, gray stadium that looked so like the old B & W images.

Now there’s a new era, and the 49ers are about to leave windy old Candlestick Park for new digs abuilding in Santa Clara, just down the 101. They are being led by one of a new generation of quarterbacks, one of at least three "option" quarterbacks who are revolutionizing the old NFL passing game. They are a feisty group: one looking like a lean tattooed hippy, another like a short fireplug, and the third resembling a dread-locked Alabama running back. The game they play is exciting and refreshing. In a league that is known for copycatting, it won't be long before this style is the norm.

All this brings to mind a more quiet revolution in laser materials processing technology and tangentially in lean manufacturing  around the world. Most metal manufacturing operations are subtractive with chunks of metal being machined down to final shape. Large amounts of scrap metal result, creating a new term "scrap management." Years ago I worked on a process that used a laser beam to cut the ribbons of metal resulting from turning operations into short pieces that could be blown into barrels for later recycling. These densely packed barrels freed up unproductive floor space in the machine shop and greatly reduced scrap management. However, it was judged too expensive because of the investment and operating cost of the lasers then used.

At about the same time, I was involved in a government-sponsored program to use the energy - in a focused or shaped laser beam impinging on the surface of hard-to-machine metal parts - just ahead of the cutting tool, which acted to soften the metal, leading to faster machining rates, less tool wear, and smoother finishes. 

The lasers we were using were also being used in a cladding process where layers of melted powder metals were laid down to create a new, more wear-resistant surface. We did play around with building up layers, but not to create a specific shape. Later, this technology was expanded at United Technologies as the laser beam melted and deposited metal to create an aircraft turbine component.

Others experimented with the buildup process and several limited-success activities evolved. Holding back more widespread acceptance of this process was the usual reluctance on the part of industry to accept change.

Early in the history of industrial lasers. the Brits had had the idea of cost-effective manufacturing of quantities-of one, but the concept never took root: too advanced for a slow-to-change industry. The evolution of "lean manufacturing" and the ideal of building quantities of one at a competitive price began to take hold several years ago. Some impetus came from the U.S. government, where the DOD sensed the future need for sources that could cope with the demand for replacement parts from industries that had long since stopped producing.

Sitting in the wings was the rapid prototyping industry that had expanded its capabilities into rapid manufacturing and was experimenting with deposition of metal powders to make useable parts. A conjunction of this technology with the needs of lean manufacturing and the availability of powerful cost-effective fiber laser sources created the process now known as additive manufacturing and its subset, laser additive manufacturing (LAM).

The Laser Institute of America recognized this technology as a process of the future and thus convened the first LAM conference in Houston last year. This year’s event, again held in Houston, will expand its frontiers beyond aerospace into the more mundane needs of small- to medium-sized machine shops. Interested parties, for a start, might consider attending LAM and joining the growing network of LAM enthusiasts.

ILS will feature articles on this subject, commencing with the March/April issue, where industry in the US is challenged to take up this technology. Like many technologies, its time has come, and the future is very bright for LAM.

Happy New Year - I think

There's something about the start of a new year that I find refreshing. Maybe it's just looking at a calendar with 12-month listings of mostly good happenings such as: conferences, trade shows, and overseas trips, with the exception of a couple of not-so-good events, like a root canal I am scheduled for in February.

I find it somewhat amusing that the end-of-the-year comments on the Internet were, for the most part, negative about the world's manufacturing economic forecasts and then after January 1 these same commentators turned more positive by finding rays of sunshine in the same bad news they promulgated in December. Just a few examples from Industry Week:

Then - German Industrial Output Tumbles Again and Japanese Manufacturers' Confidence Dives
Now - Advanced Manufacturing Comes to Life in 2012 and Make Your Move: Peril or Profit – What Should You Expect from the Economy in 2013.

Three commentaries, one up - two down.

The early industrial laser news has been mostly positive, with several companies spending hoarded cash to buy some market share, for example Coherent beefing-up its ultra-fast pulse laser business with the purchase of Lumera and Leco (Lincoln Electric) buying Tennessee Rand and adding this systems builder to go along with last year's buy of special laser system maker, Wayne Trail.

I like this laser news as it presages more good news as these and other companies restructure to meet the expected surge later this year: a subject I'll address at this year's Laser & Photonics Market seminar in San Francisco next month.

Seasons greetings

It's that time of year when many of us reflect on the past 12 months -- and if we are honest, we give some thought to what we did that didn't quite work out the way we had planned. Out of this may come a resolution to not do such things again in the new year. I come at this from a different, more pragmatic, direction: basically, what happened is history and move on from there.

The reason I bring this up is that I have completed my Annual Industrial Laser Market Review, which will appear in the January/February issue of Industrial Laser Solutions magazine and also be presented at the annual Laser & Photonics Marketplace seminar in San Francisco (February 4th) -- in which I will gracefully acknowledge that I pretty much called the laser economic performance as it worked out.

Nursing a strained arm, a result of too much back-patting, I will bravely attempt to crystal-ball the 2013 markets. Like the most watched prognosticator, the weatherman, I'll take credit for the good forecast and ignore the bad; maybe that's where I developed my pragmatic attitude. (Just kidding, folks -- I don't get, nor want, gold medals for calling it right.)

The industrial laser market was 'so-so' in 2012, with some sectors having a great year and others a not-so-bad year, much of which came in quarterly ups and downs through the year, not too many in sync. However, the third quarter seemed to be the most common for "down" news, a result I posit was due to laser and systems suppliers working off their 2011 backlogs. If companies were supplying the aerospace, transportation, energy, agriculture, personal communications, and medical devices markets, their fortunes were up. Since these sectors represent a major chunk of the total laser market, it was a good thing. My take on the other segments was that they had just an average year and as a consequence 2012 ended up in the mid-single-digit range for growth.

For 2013, I am not convinced that the laser market will repeat the same performance. A message that came across when talking with exhibitors at the last big show of 2012, Fabtech, was to expect a flat year. Projections for 2013 ranged from that to low growth, with the exception coming from some of the 'star' sectors of 2012. I won't give away my analysis results; you'll have to read it in ILS or attend the San Francisco seminar. Suffice it to say, it's not the brightest forecast I have made.

Other than that, please have a happy holiday season -- and let's think positive about 2013.

Fabtech 2012: Hiking through an oasis of lasers in the desert

Walking the 450,000 square feet of the Las Vegas Convention Center dedicated to Fabtech for three days is usually a chore. This year, the hike was made longer by the fact that the booth assignment for Industrial Laser Solutions was as far from the main entrance as one could get, against the far wall of the Center hall. Reaching this "home base" location after forays into the Center and North halls of the show at times felt like being a constant hiker to the summit of Mount Everest. You were glad to get there and rest, but apprehensive about doing it again and again as you tried to visit all the laser exhibits among the 1100 spread throughout the halls.

However, like good soldiers, my partner, associate editor Jim Montgomery, and I logged innumerable miles as we managed to see most of the exhibitors until we ran out of time, and energy, at the end of the third day.

As already reported, the show appeared to be a significant success. We did not hear any negative comments about the show, and for the most part the positive comments were effusive regarding the quantity and quality of the show visitors. Business was good, with many orders closed by exhibitors and with others piling up leads as the first two days saw a continuous stream of visitors in the dozens of aisles. As an aside, we wondered where all these visitors were coming from: after all, there isn't much industry in and around Las Vegas since it's mostly desert. So we surmised that these adamant show-goers -- more than 25,000 of them -- came from a distance and spent time and money to see metal fabricating and welding specifically.

On the morning of the final day, after a very strong Tuesday attendance, I recalled a video that was shot of me exiting the 2008 Fabtech (see below), which had been held in this same facility. My recorded comment was that the show had been a spectacular success, with many orders placed and prospects for the coming quarter projected as very bright. That show, like this year's, was scheduled a few short weeks after a very successful EuroBlech -- just as happened this year.

You will recall that 2008 was a year of indecision, where "cautiously optimistic" became a marketing manager's mantra, whereas this year it is "uncertainty." At EuroBlech and Fabtech that year, positive business news seemed to run counter to all the negative financial news in the media. However, in the first week of December 2008, the bottom fell out of the laser market as order cancellations began to flow in, and projects were summarily delayed.

Fabtech 2012 had an eerie feeling of déjà vu. On my iPhone were reports of a return of recession in Europe, unrest in Israel/Palestine, and the "fiscal cliff" in the US. Strangely reminiscent of the negative news in 2008, just of a different character.

I left the Las Vegas Convention Center with an unsettling feeling. Will 2012 be a repeat of 2008? My head tells me that things are different today, but my gut kept rumbling -- déjà vu. I sincerely hope it was just indigestion from the Brazilian Churrasco I had the night before, and not an indication of some negative news to come.

Industrial laser exhibition shows growth

There has been a growing interest, among the industrial laser equipment suppliers, for a trade show of their own in which to promote their products to potential buyers who attend because of this interest. The Laser Institute of America (LIA), an international society mainly known as the organizer of the world renowned International Congress on Lasers and Electro-Optics (ICALEO), stepped up to the plate last year and they organized the first Lasers for Manufacturing Event (LME).

The October 22nd second convening of this event, again held in Schaumburg, IL, was a larger version of the inaugural with an additional 30% exhibitors and a growth in attendance of 37%. Peter Baker, LIA executive director, told me that the growth of LME was akin to that old adage, "You must crawl before you walk." Consequently the LIA, with two years under its belt, has committed to another three years at the attractive and convenient Schaumburg Convention Center.

Attempting to slide an industrial trade show into an already crowded calendar is not an easy task. Many of these trade shows (IMTS, Fabtech, EuroBlech, MD&M, and even the LIA's own ICALEO) have industrial laser material processing related content, drawing away potential exhibitors and attendees. However LME is a truly different show -- it is a show of industrial laser suppliers showing their products to interested laser buyers. As more than one exhibitor told me this year, "The level of interest among attendees is of high quality because this is an industrial laser show, and the majority of visitors came because they have interest in this technology." Another exhibitor said they had doubled their orders this year over last year. Confirming this good news, 90% of exhibitors surveyed advised they will return next year.

It's too early for weird

This spot has not been updated for a while due in large part to my relative incapacity -- a result of some unplanned surgery that sapped my energy. I suggest readers might find it amusing to read My View, appearing in the November/December issue of ILS, for details. But I am now almost 100% and back at the keyboard. Again, see My View for more thoughts on this.

So how did the world fair while I was away? Let's see: the Eurozone is still a mess, although Greece is back in favor with a new finance minister in charge. However, Portugal and Spain are still stressing out -- no change there. China remains the big thorn in everyone's side, as manufacturing in that country has contracted for the 11th straight month and the economic expansion in August was the worst performance in three years. The government still seems to be focused on domestic opportunities, and there does not seem to be any support for assisting the capex market to produce sales of sophisticated imported equipment for the production of parts for export. The outlook in China, according to MAPI (Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation), is for 2012 manufacturing sales to grow 7.8%, down from previous estimates of 8.6%. For machinery and equipment, sales revenue is anticipated to be down 3% in 2012 and 4% in 2013 from previous estimates.

All of this means that countries exporting equipment into China will have to gut out 2012 and hope the government has another change of policy to open the floodgates for imports in 2013.

Working back down the food chain, this is not pleasant news for European companies dependent on exports to China. In the US, manufacturing grew for the first time in four months according to the ISM (Institute for Supply Management). And this poses a conundrum: are US companies dependent on sales to China or not? It looks like a "not" at this time, as manufacturing is cruising along even though surveys suggest that these companies are anxious about the possibility of a fiscal cliff brought on by domestic tax increases and budget cuts.

Third quarter reports and guidance from our ILS survey companies will start to arrive in our offices in late November, just in time for compilation into our annual economic review of the laser market. As of this writing, I don't have a clue as to what the numbers will look like, but I have the feeling the China situation may finally be rearing its ugly head here, as in other industrialized nations. Whatever happens, it looks like a bumpy ride for the coming weeks.

Eye's East

China, that powerhouse economy, has thrown the world a curve-ball. Some saw this coming, as the financial news from the country had turned neutral and then negative in the past few weeks. But like many Pollyannas, reality in the stock markets never set in and predictions of a government-led turnaround were common in manufacturing industry corporate reports to stockholders. The magic elixir of government stimulation, rapidly applied and instantly effective, was expected to turn this situation around. Weeks went by and this did not occur, at least in the short-run which had been the modus operandi since the recession.

Official figures released over the weekend showed only an 8.7% increase in production, the same rate as the country experienced in the recession three years ago. It wasn't as sharp decline as China's economy had been slipping over the last year or so, refusing to react to government moves to turn it around -- and distinctly sending a message of independence from the non-state-owned manufacturing community. Both imports and exports took a hit with the former down 2.6% and the latter growing only a so-so 2.7%. With domestic demand slipping in China, this prolonged situation is not good news especially in countries and companies for whom exports to China may be their life-blood in a near-recession economy.

Among the industrial laser and systems suppliers, this is troubling news. The end of the third quarter is only three weeks away and the anticipated recovery to stronger shipments to the Far East looks questionable. Some analysts see the government's infrastructure stimulus favoring imports in the coming months but there seems to be little support for an instant boom in the economy. That said, it looks like the industry will settle down to modest growth market in China into the new year.

Technology to the rescue

I have been trumpeting the resurgence of US manufacturing, and the contribution of industrial lasers to it, since the recession began its recovery. The latest supporting data: July saw a second straight month of higher factory output (0.5%), according to the Federal Reserve, and overall industrial production increased 0.6%, a fourth straight month of growth. And although US manufacturing technology orders inched down in June 2012, according to the Association For Manufacturing Technology (AMT, as backlogs swell in the supply chain, order activity is expected to rejuvenate by summer's end.

Articles are now appearing in all the industrial-related publications, supporting the growth of US manufacturing as the rest of the world has gone into a manufacturing slump. Every once in a while I come across a succinct look at the US manufacturing sector from an observer. Mike Collins, president of MPC Management and the author of Saving American Manufacturing, has nailed it in his latest contribution. I highly recommend it.

Thank you Mike, for reminding us that the US is still a technology leader.

Making your mark in the world

I've been looking at the quarterly reports, and transcripts of telephone analyst interviews, of several industrial laser industry leaders, and I have also been keeping an unofficial tab on Google postings, and it is clear to me that laser marking is experiencing a strong year akin to pre-recession double digit growth levels.

Laser marking systems are the closest thing the industrial laser industry has to a consumer product. I liken it to a laser printer in the office products business, or a pick-and-place robot in the manufacturing sector. The term "ubiquitous" is apt because there are at least 155 companies in the Industrial Laser Solutions database of global laser marking system suppliers, with more showing up each week.

For those of you who haven't been paying attention to this application, let me explain why it has arrived at its current stature. Simply put, it's because of industry standards and government regulations for product marking and identification for traceability and security purposes.

Years ago, pioneers in the laser industry used to bemoan the fact that the laser was not like a razor, where the aftersales market for the consumable razor blades was where the profits were made. Lo and behold, the consumables issue worked in reverse for the laser companies. Users' issues with consumables when using ink-jet labeling created an interest in the non-consumable laser marking technology. This, along with other technical advantages -- legibility, permeability, readability, and process flexibility -- built the market for laser marking systems. So when corporations, trade associations, and governments looked for a marking technology with these attributes, they settled on the laser. This created a market built on regulations, which carried the industry through the recession in better shape than other laser technologies. This is all neatly spelled out in the now available Industrial Laser Solutions Laser Marking Digest.

By the end of this year, more than 36,000 laser marking/engraving systems worth between three-quarter and one billion dollars will have been installed globally. This will be at least a 10% growth over a good 2011 sales year. And the next time you see one of those 2D bar codes on a package, consider that precise laser marking allows the users to pack more marketing data in this identifier than other processes, assuring continuing growth in this industrial laser sector.

Curiouser and curiouser: Unearthing a gem from ILS' readership data

A good editor looks for trends in the markets they report on. Searching for some clues as to shifts in the industrial laser markets, I have been reviewing the geographic breakdown of Industrial Laser Solutions' international readers, which comprise almost half the total readership. And I found a gem: among the African readers of ILS (we have subscribers in 32 of the continent's 52 countries), 31% are located in Nigeria, making this nation the heaviest reader of ILS. I would have thought this distinction belonged to South Africa which has an acknowledged manufacturing economy, but it is home to only 18% of ILS' African readership -- and it isn't even second, with that honor going to Egypt at 21%.

So I looked back at data from five years ago, and found the African splits were in the same order, but back then Africa only accounted for 0.7% of ILS's readers versus today's 2.7%. Is there something going on in the industrial laser community in that continent that caused a greater than 300% increase in those interested in industrial lasers?

Nigeria is one-third larger than Texas and it is the most populous country in Africa. Industrially it generates revenues from crude oil, coal, tin, palm oil, cotton, footwear, chemicals, fertilizer, ceramics, steel, and small commercial ship construction and repair. Petroleum and petroleum products, cocoa, and rubber are its major exports.

Among our Nigerian readers, 65% identify themselves as CEOs, directors, engineering and production managers, and engineers in companies that seem to be heavily slanted to the petroleum industry and its service companies. That sector is a potential choice market for laser applications such as welding, laser additive manufacturing, and drilling. Without Googling all the readers' companies (which might be fun but time-consuming), it's hard to find an obvious reason why ILS and industrial laser technology seem to be of such interest in Africa's largest nation.

Last year in a My View column on the manufacturing economy, I made a prediction about Africa's place as a factor in the industrial market and when it could happen. It was written as tongue-in-cheek and meant to be a think piece, yet it drew a surprising amount of supportive comments. Others, it seems, are also of the opinion that Africa will be a "hot industrial laser market." Maybe my 25-year horizon was a bit off, as evidenced by this publication's readership growth.

Update 7/17/2012: And apparently I'm not the only one who is turning my attention to Africa as a high-growth region -- the latest issue of Fortune has hit my desk with a special advertising section, "Africa's Moment" [PDF download here], discussing Africa's emergence "as a strong global player" for private sector and economic development activities.

Why I hate mid-week holidays

I am just as patriotic as the next guy, I guess, respectfully honoring Independence Day on the 4th of July -- but not when it occurs in the middle of the week. My complaint here is that I experience two "Mondays" in one week, and that's not a good thing. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is working and my international e-mails keep streaming in, waiting for answers while I lounge in the hammock.

To top off this year's July event, the business news is not good. While trying to fathom what impact a reported slowdown in Latin America, Brazil and Argentina will have on industrial laser exports, I was hit by a new Wall Street Journal headline: "Factory Slump Reaches US." In this case, the former feeds the latter. Not a pleasant way to celebrate the 4th.

The Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) has revised its Latin America forecast for overall manufacturing output in 2012 down to 3.1% from 4.4%. According to MAPI, manufacturing activity in Brazil stopped a year ago and has been contracting for the past six months. Brazil has been identified as a major market for industrial laser products -- as recently as last month, at a VDMA briefing in Stuttgart, Brazil was identified as prime territory for industrial laser expansion.

In fairness, the MAPI report was very positive on Mexico, which, led by automotive and machinery, is proving resilient to the downward trend in Latin America.

The effects of global economic slowdown have finally filtered down to the US manufacturing sector, where the Institute for Supply Management says exports fell and new orders dropped for the first time since July 2009. Many experts had anticipated this, thinking it was an inevitable action as Europe, a major trading partner, can't seem to get its act together and the stop-gap action by China's government to get that countries economy moving again seems to have had little effect.

As I rock in my hammock, a thought occurs to me. The USA fought for its independence on this day we celebrate -- but some 230 years later our independence is questionable, as a global economy and its effects make us interdependent on the actions of others.

Lasys 2012: Confidence in Europe, questions about China

A heavy attendance on Wednesday (2500+) had show organizers confident that they can achieve their projected show total of 4500. More importantly, the savvy visitors are here to see the laser and system exhibitors of which there were about half the total. LASYS does not show sheet-metal cutters for political reasons; a competing show here gets them later in the year.

Fiber lasers, diodes, ultrafast-pulse, and disc lasers have been featured at this year's LASYS -- but the industry leader IPG Photonics choose not to show, a surprise to all. TRUMPF and Rofin have major exhibits, and Trumpf has been busy every day. Products attracting interest have been micromachining, marking, drilling, and surfacing; most of these are smallish systems suitable for the size of this show.

LASYS remains very much a German show, with the rare US, Italian, and French systems being displayed. Most of the attendees are from Germany, although the show management did not have demographics available as this is being written. I spoke with a few visitors from Central and Eastern Europe who were job-shop owners shopping for micromachining systems.

Arnold Mayer, a market analyst with Optech Consulting, pegs the total 2012 industrial laser systems market at $10 billion, with projected growth flat ± 5%. This includes excimers used in photolithography, which ILS does not include in our market analyses.

The underlying concern about the European economy surfaces whenever the industrial laser market is discussed. However, the exhibitors here at LASYS seem reconciled to this sorting itself out, and that the situation will change for the better next year. Trumpf, the 800-pound gorilla, claims it will show an increase for the year, but company managers could not be pinned down to a number.

In fact, I have heard more concern about China than about Europe. Mayer pegs China at $1B last year, but he too is concerned that things have slowed for lasers there, at least for the last quarter.

Live from LASYS 2012: Savvy crowds return

The second day of LASYS dawned gray, gloomy, and wet, but the anticipated crowds showed up once again, certifying that, in Germany at least, day two is the most heavily attended. The show's six aisles were full early, and through mid-day most exhibitors were busy meeting prospects. Add to this the extra attendance offered by large numbers of attendees at the Stuttgart Laser Technology Congress being held concurrently, and Wednesday should be a good day for exhibitors. Assuming that the attendance holds up, LASYS may make its target numbers by the end of Thursday.

Several new-to-LASYS exhibitors showing ultrafast pulse and/or fiber lasers or disc lasers drew the attention of show goers. Attendees conditioned to these lasers and the applications they process were drawn to the offerings of new suppliers. Counter to shows in the US where these products would be received as novel, potential users in Germany understand the processing advantages of these lasers as a given. This more knowledgeable customer base makes it easier for vendors to present the merits of a given laser system, rather than explain the processing advantages of a technology.

Live from LASYS 2012: An encouraging start despite EU sogginess

LASYS 2012, happening this week (June 12-14) in Stuttgart, Germany, opened with a spurt of attendees -- which was unusual for a German trade show, where attendee numbers typically increase on the second day. 179 exhibitors breathed a sigh of relief, as concern for the economy here in Europe is on everyone's mind.

However, mid-day traffic dropped to a more normal level. I'm not sure if it was an early afternoon rainstorm that cut the crowds down, but there were a lot of exhibitor-to-exhibitor conversations as the attendance fell off after 3PM. Nevertheless, several exhibitors we spoke with said that the lower volume inquiries were of high quality, and that was a blessing.

Two adjacent shows on auto technology drew crowds, but these were confined to their respective halls on the first day, and any fallout from these wasn't expected until Thursday of this week. Tomorrow (Wednesday) is the big day at LASYS 2012 -- and we, along with all the other exhibitors, are hoping that the show projections for total attendance (4500) can be achieved and even surpassed.

Fiber vs. CO2 lasers for job shops: Clarifying the AKL controversy

As expected, I have already received comments relative to the news item I posted from last week's International Laser Technology Conference (AKL) in Aachen on fiber versus CO₂ laser cutting. First off, let me be clear on what John Powell from Laser Expertise presented from a paper he co-authored with A.F.H Kaplan of the Lulea University of Technology -- it was a "discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of both types of laser cutting technology from a commercial point of view, written from the perspective of a laser cutting job-shop owner trying to decide between buying a fiber or CO₂ laser cutting machine." His early conclusion was that the machine choice is not straightforward, and that "both machines have advantages and disadvantages."

During his introduction, Powell clarified that his analysis considered fiber laser to mean both fiber and disc lasers, and quoted Dr. Dirk Petring's (Fraunhofer ILT) comments made at last year's Industrial Laser Applications Symposium (ILAS, March 2011, Warrington, UK) comparing CO₂ and fiber lasers for cutting thin section (Powell's emphasis) metal, that "the CO₂ laser is dead." Simply put, for cutting metals thinner than 3 mm the fiber is faster and the edge quality is as good. So, for manufacturers of thin-gauge metal components, the fiber is the better choice.

For a job-shop, though, the choice is not as clear. So he investigated two machines, a 5 kW CO₂ from Trumpf and a 3 kW fiber from Bystronic. Setting aside all the detailed data these suppliers provided, Powell decided on "two basic considerations" for the potential job-shop users: what will be the cost/part produced, and how good is the cut quality?

For cutting thin-gauge stainless steel. he gives the edge to the fiber laser which is 25-50% faster than the CO₂ laser, especially when cutting large simple shapes. At 4 mm the cutting speeds converge, and above 8 mm the advantage goes to the CO₂ laser.

Looking at running costs, Powell gives the edge to the fiber laser, citing its lower maintenance cost -- although he qualified this by noting the dearth of long-term operating data for the newer fiber laser technology.

As to cut quality, he acknowledged that suppliers of both technologies have narrowed the quality differences up to 6-8 mm thicknesses, but for thicknesses above this range the CO₂ laser excels. Powell gave credit to the fiber laser for oxygen-assist cutting of mild steels where the cut edges are comparable.

The edge in cutting copper and aluminum alloys goes to the fiber laser. CO₂ lasers get the nod for cutting plastic and wood-based products. He noted, though, that most job shops only cut a small amount of these materials.

So, Powell's conclusion: if you are a job shop with a wide range of cutting requirements, you "should buy CO₂ machines until you have enough suitable work to fill the capacity of a fiber laser." For manufacturing companies making products from thin section metals, "your first choice should probably be a fiber laser." Prospective buyers, he advised, should get actual cutting trials done on typical jobs by potential suppliers of both types of machines.

Interestingly, many of the questions from the AKL audience dealt with technical aspects, which he answered. But he cautioned several times that his analysis was made from the perspective of a job-shop buyer, and consequently his two basic considerations -- cost/part and cut edge quality -- were the most important factors.

Good times are rolling in the US

I'm sitting here feeling smug. The business headlines say it better than me: "Industry Picks Up the Pace", "Manufacturing Report Shows Continued Growth", "Dow Headed for Highest Close Since '07 on Manufacturing." All three, and many more references to what is happening in the United States, seem to be confounding the economic experts and stock market analysts. The April numbers from the Institute for Supply Management hit 54.8% in April, the 33rd consecutive month of growth and fastest pace since June of last year.

Sorry folks -- except for those who have been following my ramblings on the health of the US manufacturing sector -- but here's a quote from that WSJ article I just can't help chuckling over: "The report surprised many economists who had forecast a slower manufacturing growth in the face of downturn overseas." Surprised? Come on, people! Come down from your ivory towers on Wall Street and out of your dusty university offices, and get out in the field and talk to the companies that are driving the renaissance in US manufacturing. Maybe they should have read the optimistic news items that have been appearing since the year started. It may be short-lived, but revel in the good news.

In my presentation on the US market for industrial lasers, to be given at the International Technology Congress (AKL) in Aachen next week, I will have to rein in my enthusiasm about the US situation in deference to the gray, and even black, picture for manufacturing in Europe. We here in the US have been there also in the recent past and we know what you are experiencing. For you, it's austerity to avoid recession; for us it was financial market finagling. But the result was the same: pain in the manufacturing sector.

So hang in there -- best-case, you'll either recover soon, or the US will get dragged down by your problems and join you. Let's hope not, or those pesky doomsday analysts might finally get it right.